Kangangeminyaka kukho iingxoxo-mpikiswano malunga nokutsalwa kwe-oyile kunye negesi yendalo kwi-Arctic, enye yemimandla yokugqibela engazange ihlolwe ngokwemithombo ye-fossil. Ngokutsho kwezifundo ezininzi kunye neengcali, nangona aba vimba bakhulu bakhona, kunokwenzeka ukuba inxalenye enkulu yala mafutha ahlala ephantsi komhlaba ngenxa yokunqongophala kwenzuzo kunye nokwanda kokhuphiswano lwamandla avuselelekayo. Kweli nqaku, siza kuphanda ikamva lale mithombo yogcino, indima yeArctic ekutshintsheni kwemozulu kunye neempembelelo ze-geopolitical kunye nezoqoqosho zokuxhaphazwa kwazo.
I-Arctic likhaya kwizixa ezikhulu zemithombo yobutyebi: kuqikelelwa ukuba igxile kuyo yonke indawo I-30% yogcino lwerhasi yendalo engekafunyanwa kunye ne-13% yoovimba be-oyile engekakhutshwa. Nangona kunjalo, iimeko ezigqithisileyo zommandla zenza ukuba ukukhutshwa kwezi zixhobo kube nzima ngokobuchule kwaye kubize kakhulu. Ngaphaya koko, ukukhula kokuqina kwicandelo lamandla ahlaziyekayo kuguqula imeko yamandla ehlabathi, nto leyo ekhokelela amazwe amaninzi ukuba acinge ngokutsha ngenzuzo yokusebenzisa aba vimba.
Imeko yemozulu kunye nefuthe lokunyibilika komkhenkce kwiArctic
IArctic iyafudumala ngokukhawuleza okuphindwe kathathu kunezinye iplanethi ngenxa yokutshintsha kwemozulu, okuneziphumo ezibi kummandla nangaphaya. Ukunyibilika komkhenkce akuphazamisi nje kuphela i-ikhosistim yasekhaya kunye neentlobo ngeentlobo zezinto eziphilayo, kukwachaphazela imisinga yolwandle kwaye kunegalelo ekunyukeni komphakamo wolwandle. Njengoko umkhenkce unyibilika, uveza umhlaba omnyama weArctic, ofunxa ubushushu obungakumbi belanga, nto leyo eyenza kube mandundu ukufudumala kwehlabathi kwinkqubo eyaziwa ngokuba isiphumo se-albedo.
Oku kunyibilika kukwaququzelela ukufikelela kwimithombo yefosili yeArctic, okwenza ishishini leoli negesi libone lo mmandla njengethuba. Nangona kunjalo, le nto iza nayo yomibini imingcipheko kunye namathuba, njengoko ukukhutshwa kwezi zixhobo kunokukhawulezisa iziphumo zokutshintsha kwemozulu.
Iingcali zokutshintsha kwemozulu ziyavuma ukuba, kwixesha elide, Asinakuqhubeka sixhomekeke kumafutha efosili.. Ngokutsho kophononongo olwenziwe yiYunivesithi yaseLondon, ukugcina ukufudumala kwehlabathi ngaphantsi kwe-1,5ºC, kuya kufuneka ukuba ushiye i-60% yeoli kunye ne-90% yamalahle angakhutshwa. Oku kuquka, ngokuqinisekileyo, oovimba baseArctic, nto leyo ephakamisa amathandabuzo amakhulu malunga nokuphumelela kokusetyenziswa kwabo.
Oovimba beArctic: ithuba loqoqosho okanye umgibe wemozulu?
IArctic ngummandla onzima ngokwelizwe. Inxalenye ebalulekileyo yogcino lwe-oyile kunye negesi ye-Arctic iphantsi kolawulo lwamazwe afana ne-United States, iKhanada, iNorway, iRashiya neDenmark. La mazwe abona ukusetyenziswa kobu butyebi njengendlela yokukhulisa uqoqosho lwawo ngokuthumela ii-hydrocarbons kumazwe angaphandle. Nangona kunjalo, iindleko zoqoqosho kunye nokusingqongileyo zokukhupha ezi zixhobo ziphezulu kakhulu.
- Ixabiso lomphanda weoyile kwi-Arctic liphakathi kwe-30% kunye ne-50% ephezulu xa kuthelekiswa neminye imimandla efikelelekayo.
- Iimeko zemozulu ezigqithisileyo kunye nokungabikho kweziseko zophuhliso kwandisa umngcipheko weengozi kunye nokuchitheka.
- Ukuzinikela kwehlabathi ekunciphiseni ikhabhoni kunye nokunyuka kwamandla ahlaziyekayo kunciphisa imfuno yexesha elide yamafutha efosili.
Nangona obu bunzima, iinkampani ezifana Gazprom y ConocoPhillips Bakuphonononga ngenkuthalo ukusetyenziswa kweArctic. Ngokomzekelo, i-Gazprom, iqalile ukugaya eLwandle lwaseKara, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ikhulise imveliso yayo nge-14% ngo-2030. Ngenxa yayo, i-ConocoPhillips sele ifumene imvume yokuqalisa iprojekthi ye-Willow e-Alaska, enye yezona zinkulu kakhulu. kwi-American Arctic.
Ngapha koko, impembelelo ekhulayo yamandla angeyo-Arctic anje I-China ne-Indiya yazisa abadlali abatsha kumlo wezixhobo zeArctic. La mazwe afuna ukuseka izivumelwano zorhwebo ukuqinisekisa ukufikelela kwizixhobo ezinqabileyo kwezinye iindawo zehlabathi, ezifana nobhedu, i-nickel kunye nomhlaba onqabileyo.
Utshintsho lwamandla kunye nefuthe lawo koovimba baseArctic
Konke oku kwenzeka kwimeko apho i amandla ahlaziyekayo, ezifana nomoya, ilanga kunye ne-hydraulic, ziya zisanda ngokwanda ngokuchasene ne-fossil fuels. Amazwe afana neNorway, ebekade engabavelisi abakhulu be-oyile, aqalisa ukuguqulela uqoqosho ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo ukuze angaxhomekeki kakhulu kwiihydrocarbons.
Ngokomzekelo, iNorway, iseke ikhomishini yokufunda imodeli yayo yamandla egqiba ukuba ayiyi kukhupha yonke i-hydrocarbon reserves enayo kwaye kuyimfuneko ukuhlukanisa i-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ukuvelisa ezinye iintlobo zobutyebi, ikakhulu ngokusuka kwimithombo ehlaziyekayo. Lo mcimbi uphindwa nakwamanye amazwe avelisa i-oyile, njengoko ukukhula kokusebenza kakuhle kunye nokhuphiswano kwicandelo lamandla ahlaziyekayo lenza ukutsalwa kwe-oyile ekrwada kwiindawo ezintsonkothileyo ezifana ne-Arctic kuyanda kungenangeniso.
La I-Arhente yaMandla yaMazwe ngaMazwe (IEA) uye walumkisa ukuba utyalo-mali kumandla ahlaziyekayo kufuneka luphindwe kathathu ukuba sifuna ukuhlangabezana neenjongo zokunciphisa ikhabhoni kwaye sigcine ukunyuka kobushushu behlabathi ngaphantsi kwe-1,5ºC. Olu tshintsho lweparadigm luchaphazela ngqo ishishini lamafutha efosili eArctic.
Ngaba iArctic ingaba yeyona ndawo iphambili kwi-geopolitics yamandla?
Ngokunyuka koxinzelelo lokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni kunye nokunyuka okungenakunqandeka kwamandla avuselelekayo, i-Arctic iye yasuka kwindawo ene-hydrocarbon-rich ukuya kwindawo yedabi ekulweni nokutshintsha kwemozulu. Utshintsho oluya kuqoqosho oluluhlaza aluchaphazeli nje kuphela iinkampani ezinkulu zefosili, kodwa kunye namandla ezopolitiko axhomekeke kwezi zixhobo.
Ngokomzekelo, iRashiya, kunye nommandla wayo omkhulu we-Arctic, iye yandisa utyalo-mali lweziseko ezingundoqo kummandla, ukwakha imibhobho yegesi kunye namaqonga ase-offshore kwinzame yokuzuza kwimithombo yayo yendalo. Nangona kunjalo, izohlwayo zamazwe ngamazwe, njengesiphumo songquzulwano e-Ukraine, zichaphazela amandla ayo okutsala utyalo-mali lwangaphandle olungundoqo kuphuhliso lwezi projekthi.
Los izivumelwano zamazwe ngamazwe ezifana neSivumelwano soLwandle oluPhezulu kunye nezithintelo zejografi ezibekwe zezinye iibhanki ezifana ne Santander Indawo, ikwadlala indima ebalulekileyo kulawulo lommandla. Ezi zivumelwano zifuna ukunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwemithombo ye-Arctic kwimimandla yamazwe ngamazwe, ngelixa imigaqo-nkqubo yebhanki ithintela ukuxhaswa ngemali kweeprojekthi ezintsha ze-fossil kwingingqi.
Kwelinye icala, iinkampani kunye noorhulumente abaqhubeka nokuthembela kumafutha endalo eArctic banokujongana nekamva elingaqinisekanga, njengoko imfuno yehlabathi yee-hydrocarbons iya kuncipha njengoko amazwe eqhubela phambili ekuphumezeni imigaqo-nkqubo ye-decarbonization.
Sekunjalo, iArctic isengummandla onobuchule kwihlabathi jikelele. Ukongeza kumafutha efosili, lo mmandla uneeminerali eziyimfuneko kwimveliso yetekhnoloji yohlaza efana nekopolo kunye nenickel. Oku kuthetha ukuba nokuba abanye abadlali bayarhoxa kwishishini leoli kunye negesi, ukhuphiswano lwezixhobo zeArctic luya kuqhubeka.
Konke oku kusikhokelela ekubeni sizibuze, kuya kwenzeka ntoni kwioli yeArctic kwixesha elizayo? Okwangoku, imiqondiso yalatha kwinto yokuba ukusebenzisa ezi zixhobo isenokungabi lolona bhejo lunengeniso yexesha elide. Nangona kunjalo, iziphumo zezoqoqosho nezopolitiko zokungasebenzisi ezi zixhobo zisekude ukuba zisonjululwe.
Ikamva lamafutha efosili kwi-Arctic liphawulwa yingxaki phakathi kokukhusela i-ikhosistim eethe-ethe yommandla kunye nokusetyenziswa kwemithombo yobutyebi enokuthi, kwixesha elifutshane, ibe luncedo kuqoqosho oluthile. Nangona ixesha lamafutha efosili libonakala liza kufikelela esiphelweni, kusaza kubonakala ukuba oovimba beArctic baya kuhlala besemhlabeni na okanye bafake isandla ekwandiseni imfuno yamandla ehlabathi kwinguqu.