Ngokuthe ngcembe amazwe amaninzi ayayinyusa imithombo yawo amandla avuselelwe yaye agubungela ipesenti enkulu yamandla ehlabathi afunwa ngabo bonke abemi. Ngale ndlela, amandla angahlaziyekiyo anokutshintshwa ngamandla avela ngokuthe ngqo kwindalo, anje ngelanga, umoya, amandla ombane ovela kwi-geothermal okanye ngombane wamanzi, zonke ezi zingundoqo ekunciphiseni ukuxhomekeka kumafutha efosili.
Ukwanda okuzinzileyo kokwamkelwa kwale mithombo kubangele ipesenti yamandla ahlaziyekayo kwimfuno yamandla ehlabathi ifikelele kuma-2023% ngowama-30, isiganeko esibalulekileyo esibonakalisa inzame yehlabathi kutshintsho lwamandla. Nangona kunjalo, kusekho umsebenzi omninzi ekufuneka wenziwe, ekubeni injongo ye Umthamo wamandla ahlaziyekayo kathathu ngo-2030 ihlala ilindile, ngokwedatha evela kwingxelo yakutsha nje ye-International Energy Agency.
Imingeni yotshintsho lwamandla
Isingqisho se Imveliso yamandla ahlaziyekayo Akunjalo kuwo onke amazwe, nto leyo engumceli mngeni wenguqu elinganayo. Ngelixa amazwe afana ne-China kunye ne-United States zikhokela ekuthatheni abantwana, eminye imimandla efana ne-Afrika isaqala ukwandisa umthamo wayo, inegalelo kuphela kwi-4,6% yokukhula kwamandla ahlaziyekayo kwihlabathi. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, i-Asiya, ekhokelwa yi-China, igalele i-69% yomthamo ohlaziyekayo wehlabathi wongezwe ngo-2023. Oku kungalingani kuqaqambisa ukungxamiseka kotyalo-mali kwiziseko zoncedo zamandla kumazwe asaphuhlayo.
Ukongeza, iyantlukwano yezobuchwepheshe phakathi kwemimandla ikwadlala indima. Amandla elanga abe yeyona teknoloji ilawulayo, ebalelwa kwi-73% yokukhula kwamandla ahlaziyekayo kulo nyaka uphelileyo. Ngeli xesha, amazwe anobutyebi obumbalwa axhomekeke kumandla ombane, ukukhula kwawo kuthintelwe yimbalela nokutshintsha kwemozulu.
Ukukhula kwemfuno yehlabathi kubeka amandla ahlaziyekayo kuvavanyo
Olunye uguquko olubalulekileyo ekufuneka luqwalaselwe kukunyuka rhoqo kwemfuno yamandla ehlabathi, eya kukhula malunga ne-4% ngo-2024 kunye no-2025, ngokutsho kwe-Arhente yaMandla yamazwe ngamazwe. Oku kwanda kubangelwa ikakhulu kukukhula koqoqosho lwehlabathi, amaza obushushu, kunye nokwamkelwa ngobuninzi kobugcisa obufana nezithuthi zombane.
Le mfuno ikhulayo iqhubela phambili ukwandiswa kwemithombo ecocekileyo. Ngo-2025, kulindeleke ukuba Amandla ahlaziyekayo agubungela i-35% yemfuno yombane yehlabathi. Enyanisweni, ngokokuqala ngqa kwimbali, umbane oveliswa yile mithombo uya kudlula amalahle, ukudibanisa utshintsho lweparadigm kwicandelo lamandla.
Nangona kunjalo, le nkqubela phambili ayikho ngaphandle kweengxaki. Kumazwe anjengeTshayina neMexico, imbalela iye yachaphazela ukuveliswa kombane ngamanzi, nto leyo enyanzelise ukwanda kokusetyenziswa kwamafutha efosili. Oku, kwakhona, kubangele ukunyuka okuncinci kokukhutshwa kwamandla ngo-2023, okubonisa ukuba utshintsho lwamandla kufuneka lulungelelanise kwaye lukwazi ukumelana nemeko yemozulu.
Amandla elanga nawomoya: Ukukhula okuhlaziyekayo okuphambili
Ngokubhekiselele kumandla ahlaziyekayo afana nelanga nomoya, zombini zidlale indima enkulu kutshintsho lwamandla ehlabathi. Ngo-2023 kuphela, amandla e-photovoltaic elanga ayenoxanduva lwe-24% yokukhula kombane kwihlabathi jikelele, ngelixa umoya ubumele i-17%. Oko kuthetha ukuba phakathi kobuchwephesha bobabini bavelise malunga ne-12% yombane wehlabathi.
Ukunyuka kwamandla elanga, ngokukodwa, kungekhona nje ngenxa yeendleko zayo zokukhuphisana, kodwa kunye nokukwazi ukulinganisa ukuba ufakelo lwe-photovoltaic lunikezela. Amazwe afana neTshayina, i-Indiya kunye ne-United States azimise njengeenkokeli ekufakweni kwezityalo ezitsha. Ngo-2030, ilanga lilindeleke ukuba lichaze ukuya kuthi ga kwi-80% yomthamo ohlaziyekayo, ngeli lixa umoya uza kuphinda ufikelele kumazinga okwandisa ngokuphindwe kabini xa kuthelekiswa neminyaka edlulileyo.
EYurophu, amandla elanga nawomoya nawo adlale indima ebalulekileyo ekutshintsheni ukuxhomekeka kwimithombo yefosili, ngakumbi emva kobunzima bamandla obubangelwe luhlaselo lwaseRashiya eUkraine. Amazwe anjengeSpain, iHolland kunye neJamani akhokela lo mmandla ekwamkelweni kobu buchwepheshe, obuqinisa ukuzibophelela kwabo kwiinjongo zeSivumelwano saseParis.
Iimbono zexesha elide kunye nemingeni emitsha
Ngo-2050, imfuno yombane yehlabathi iya kube iphindwe kabini, ngenxa yokufakelwa kombane kwezothutho, ishishini kunye nophuhliso loqoqosho lwehlabathi. Kule nkqubo, kuqikelelwa ukuba i-90% yombane iya kuvela kwimithombo engeyiyo yefosili, idibanisa amandla ahlaziyekayo njengentsika yesiseko senkqubo yamandla ehlabathi.
Nangona kunjalo, ukufikelela kwelo nqanaba kufuna ukoyisa imingeni ebalulekileyo yezobugcisa nezoqoqosho. Ukwandisa ukuguquguquka kweegridi zombane ukufunxa imveliso eguquguqukayo yelanga kunye namandla omoya kuya kubaluleka. Kuya kufuneka kwakhona ukuba kwakhiwe iziseko zophuhliso ezitsha zokugcina amandla agqithisileyo kunye nokuphucula ukukwazi ukusabela kwiimfuno zombane eziguquguqukayo.
Ukuphuhliswa kobuchwephesha bokugcina amandla, njengeebhetri ezihlala ixesha elide, kunye nokuhlanganiswa kweenkqubo zobukrelekrele bokwenziwa kulawulo lwenethiwekhi ziya kuba yimiba ephambili kolu tshintsho. Kwinqanaba likarhulumente, ukunyuka kwentsebenziswano yamazwe ngamazwe kunye neenzame zokunciphisa iindleko zemali kumazwe asakhasayo, uqoqosho lwawo lusaxhomekeke kakhulu kumandla enyukliya nakwizibaso zefosili, kulindeleke.
Kwiminyaka ezayo, i-PV yelanga kunye nomoya uya kusebenza njengezixhobo ezibalulekileyo zokunciphisa imiphumo yokutshintsha kwemozulu, kwaye ukwamkelwa kwabo kuya kuqhubela phambili ukukhawuleza ukuba oorhulumente bakhuthaza imigaqo-nkqubo exhasayo kunye nemimiselo eququzelela ukuhlanganiswa kwabo okukhuselekileyo nokusebenzayo kwiinkqubo zelizwe.
Utshintsho kumandla ahlaziyekayo luyaqhubeka. Njengoko amazwe amaninzi ehambelana nezibophelelo zamazwe ngamazwe zokunciphisa ukukhutshwa kwezinto ezikhutshwayo, ihlabathi liza kuhambela kwinkqubo yamandla engaxhomekekanga kumafutha ezilwanyana nezityalo zefosili kwaye ilungelelaniswe ngakumbi kwiimfuno zendalo kunye nekamva elizinzileyo.