Kumashumi eminyaka, oonobangela kunye iziphumo zotshintsho lwemozulu ibe ngumxholo wenkxalabo ehlangeneyo. Nangona kunjalo, kusekho iintsomi ezininzi malunga nokutshintsha kwemozulu kwaye ayinguye wonke umntu oqonda ngokwenene ubungakanani bempembelelo yayo eMhlabeni. Le nto, ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo, yenye yezona ngxaki zinzima zokusingqongileyo ezijongene noluntu kule nkulungwane yama-21. Kule nqaku, siya kuhlalutya ngokucacileyo ukuba zeziphi izizathu eziphambili kunye nemiphumo yokutshintsha kwemozulu kunye nefuthe layo kwinqanaba lehlabathi.
Yintoni utshintsho lwemozulu?
NgokweNgqungquthela yeSikhokelo seZizwe eziManyeneyo malunga noTshintsho lweMozulu (UNFCCC), utshintsho lwemozulu lubhekiselele kutshintsho lwemozulu olubalelwa ngokuthe ngqo okanye ngokungathanga ngqo kwimisebenzi yabantu eguqula ukubunjwa kweatmosfera yehlabathi, ngaloo ndlela inyusa ukuguquguquka kwemozulu yendalo okwenzekayo kwiplanethi.
IPlanethi yoMhlaba ifumene iinkqubo zokutshintsha kwemozulu kwimbali yayo yonke. Malunga neminyaka eyi-10,000 XNUMX eyadlulayo, imozulu yayibanda kakhulu kunanamhlanje kwaye indawo enkulu yomhlaba yayigutyungelwe yimikhenkce. Nangona kunjalo, into esijongene nayo namhlanje yahluke kakhulu: utshintsho lwemozulu lwanamhlanje lukhawuleza kakhulu kwaye luqhutywa ngokuyintloko yimisebenzi yabantu, ngakumbi ukukhutshwa kwegesi ye-greenhouse.
Eyona nto iphambili emva kolu tshintsho kukunyuka ifuthe lamaqondo obushushu abanjwe lungcoliseko, okubangelwa ikakhulu kukusetyenziswa kwamafutha e-fossil kunye neminye imisebenzi yoshishino ekhupha iigesi ezininzi ezifana ne-carbon dioxide (CO2), i-methane (CH4) kunye ne-nitrogen oxides. Ezi gesi, njengoko ziqokelelana emoyeni, zibamba ubushushu, nto leyo ebangela ukwanda kobushushu bomhlaba.
Ukutshintsha kwemozulu kuchaphazela ntoni?
Utshintsho lwemozulu alucalucaluli, luchaphazela iinkqubo ezahlukeneyo zendalo kunye nezokwenziwa kwiplanethi. Okulandelayo, sihlalutya ezona ziphambili zichaphazeleka kwesi siganeko:
- I-ikhosistim yendalo: Enye yeempembelelo ezinkulu zokutshintsha kwemozulu ichaphazela ngqo izinto eziphilayo ezahlukeneyo. I-ecosystem iphazanyiswa kukunyuka kwamaqondo obushushu, ukuguquka kwendlela yokuna kweemvula, nokuhla komkhenkce. Iintlobo ezininzi azikwazi ukuziqhelanisa nolu tshintsho, nto leyo ebangela ukuphela kwazo kunye nokulahleka kweentlobo-ntlobo zezinto eziphilayo. Ngaphaya koko, ukuqhekeka kweendawo zokuhlala yingxaki enkulu ethintela ukushukuma kunye nokuzala kweentlobo ngeentlobo zezidalwa.
- Iinkqubo zabantu: Ezolimo lelinye lawona macandelo asemngciphekweni. Imbalela kunye nobushushu obuphezulu buchaphazela izivuno zezolimo, kubangela ukunqongophala kwamanzi okunkcenkceshela kunye nokwandisa ukwanda kwezinambuzane. Oku kunempembelelo ngqo ekufumanekeni kwamanzi okusela, okukhokelela kwiingxaki zempilo kunye nokusasazeka kwezifo.
- Iinkqubo zasedolophini: Ukutshintsha kwemozulu kuchaphazela ubume bezixeko, nto leyo enyanzelisa iziseko zophuhliso ezidolophini ukuba zitshintshwe ukuze zivumelane nemozulu entsha. Izixeko eziselunxwemeni, ngokukodwa, zijongene nomngcipheko wezikhukula ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaqondo olwandle.
- Iinkqubo zoqoqosho: Amacandelo ezoqoqosho axhomekeke kwimithombo yendalo (njengamandla, ukuloba okanye ezolimo) achaphazeleka kakhulu. Ukunqongophala kwemithombo yobutyebi kunye notshintsho kwiipateni zemveliso kuvelisa ilahleko enkulu kwezoqoqosho.
- Iinkqubo zentlalo: Imiphumo yentlalo yokutshintsha kwemozulu ibonakala ekufudukeni kwabantu abafuduswayo ngenxa yeziganeko zendalo. Ungquzulwano ngemithombo ebalulekileyo efana namanzi nokutya lunokuba luqilima njengoko iimeko zemozulu ziya zisiba mandundu.
Iziphumo zotshintsho lwemozulu e-Afrika
IAfrika lelinye lamazwekazi asesichengeni sokutshintsha kwemozulu. Kuqikelelwa ukuba eli lizwekazi liza kuthotywa ukuna kwemvula kwiindawo ezininzi, ngaphandle kwezinye iindawo ezisembindini nasempuma apho imvula inokwanda khona.
Njengoko utshintsho lwemozulu luqhubela phambili, iindawo ezinkulu zaseAfrika kuqikelelwa ukuba ziya kuba yintlango okanye zibe nenkqantosi, nto leyo echaphazela ezolimo kunye nokufuya imfuyo. Malunga ne-5-8% yelizwekazi inokuba ngumhlaba owomileyo ngowama-2080. Oku kukhokelela kukungabikho kokutya okumandla kunye nokunqongophala kwamanzi, okuya kuchaphazela ngqo amakhulu ezigidi zabantu.
Iziphumo zotshintsho lwemozulu eAsia
Impembelelo yokutshintsha kwemozulu e-Asia yohluka kakhulu ngokwemimandla. Ukunyibilika okukhawulezileyo komkhenkce kwiiHimalaya kuchaphazela ngokunzulu ukuhamba kwemilambo ebonelela kumazwe anjengeIndiya, iBangladesh neTshayina. Kuqikelelwa ukuba abantu abangaphezu kwebhiliyoni e-1,000 banokufumana ukunqongophala kwamanzi ngo-2050 ngenxa yezi zinto.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia, esele isengozini kwizivunguvungu kunye nezivunguvungu ezitshisayo, ziya kuba neziganeko zemozulu ezibi kakhulu, zandisa umngcipheko wokukhukula kwiindawo ezininzi ezixineneyo, ngakumbi kwi-deltas yomlambo omkhulu.
Iziphumo zokutshintsha kwemozulu kwiLatin America
ILatin America nayo iphambili kwiziphumo zokutshintsha kwemozulu. Njengoko umkhenkce uhlehla, imithombo yamanzi acocekileyo kuwo wonke lo mmandla isengozini. Oku kuneempembelelo ezibalulekileyo kwezolimo, ukusetyenziswa kwabantu kunye nokuveliswa kwamandla ombane ngamanzi.
Ngaphezu koko, ukurhoxa kwehlathi leAmazon ngenxa yembalela nokutshatyalaliswa kwamahlathi kusongela ukuguqula lo mmandla mkhulu ube yintlango eyomileyo. Oku akuyi kuchaphazela kuphela i-biodiversity yendawo, kodwa kuya kuba neempembelelo zehlabathi, njengoko i-Amazon isebenza njenge-carbon sink ebalulekileyo.
Ezi ziphumo, ezidityaniswe nokunyuka kwamanqanaba olwandle, ziya kubeka imimandla yonxweme emngciphekweni, ngakumbi kwiCaribbean, apho iziseko zophuhliso ezisengozini zinokugcwala ngokupheleleyo.
Ezinye iziphumo zehlabathi
Ukutshintsha kwemozulu akuphelelanga kwiindawo ezishushu okanye kwiindawo ezifudumeleyo zesi sijikelezi-langa. Kwanemimandla yaseYurophu nakuMntla Merika ibona utshintsho kwiqondo lobushushu kunye neepateni zemvula. Iziganeko ezigqithisileyo ezifana namaza obushushu, iinkanyamba ezinamandla kunye nezandyondyo zemvula ziya zisiba rhoqo. Umphakamo wolwandle unyuke kakhulu ukususela ngenkulungwane ye-19. kwaye esi santya siyaqhubeka sikhula, sibeka izixeko eziselunxwemeni kwihlabathi jikelele.
Uqikelelo lwezenzululwazi lubonisa ukuba ngo-2100, umgangatho wolwandle unokunyuka ukuya kutsho kwiimitha ezi-2 ukuba izinga lokukhutshwa kwegesi ye-greenhouse ayincitshiswa. Oku kuya kuchaphazela izigidi zabantu abahlala kwimimandla eselunxwemeni, ukusuka kwizixeko ezikhulu ukusa kwiziqithi ezincinane.
Njengoko singena kwixesha elizayo, kuya kucaca ukuba iziphumo zokutshintsha kwemozulu azikhawulelwanga kummandla othile, kodwa zineempembelelo zehlabathi.
Ukutshintsha kwemozulu kubonisa umngeni wehlabathi ofuna izenzo ezidibeneyo kunye nezisombululo ezikhawulezayo. Ukusuka kwimbalela e-Afrika ukuya kwizikhukula e-Asia, imiphumo yayo ayinakuphikiswa. Ukwenza ngoku akuzukunceda kuphela ukunciphisa uninzi lweziphumo ezichazwe apha, kodwa kuya kuququzelela inguqu ukuya kwisijikelezi-langa esizinzileyo nesinobulungisa kwizizukulwana ezizayo.